Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 25% on 25 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 72 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2024 to 5 Dec 2024, the highest close was 100% on 5 Dec 2024 and the lowest 25% on 25 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 55.5% on 1 Nov 2024. $40.06M traded over the market's life.
665 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 6, 12:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 25 Sep 2024 – 5 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2024 | 25.0% |
| 5 Dec 2024 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Casey2001 | No | 571.77K |
| polski.sklep | No | 301.2K |
| SAMURAICAT | No | 277.42K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-2024
| No |
| 266.45K |
| soicowboy | No | 261.45K |
| inexorablesynchronicity | No | 188.95K |
| kiwipanda | No | 153.84K |
| Ricky2 | No | 151.64K |
| kaspay | No | 150.93K |
| daolkha | No | 144.75K |
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