Latest trade
May 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 4:30 PM UTC.
Analytics
Normal-Guess is down $97.84 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 26 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-04-04 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
May 23, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 4:30 PM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 28 markets; 82.0% were buys. They run from Mar 1, 2026 UTC to May 23, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Yes | 10.2 | $0.098 | $0.23 | -$0.77 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel closes its airspace by May 24?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | May 23, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-04-04 06:52 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 16:30 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 16:30 UTC
polymarket positions
28 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-04-04 06:52 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $67.47 and losing ones cost $83.31 across 26 settled positions. 26.9% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $46.95 on “Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?” (Yes); the largest loss, $40 on “US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 23 May 2026. It has traded 55 markets. Its open positions are worth $0.23 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| buy |
| 35 |
| $0.114 |
| $4 |
| May 22, 2026 UTC |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes | buy | 10.2 | $0.098 | $1 | May 8, 2026 UTC |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.180 | $2 | May 8, 2026 UTC |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.240 | $2 | May 7, 2026 UTC |
 Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30?Yes | buy | 27.32 | $0.037 | $1 | Apr 22, 2026 UTC |
 Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.034 | $1 | Apr 22, 2026 UTC |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 22, 2026 UTC |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 22, 2026 UTC |
 Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.090 | $2 | Apr 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 90.8 | $0.022 | $2 | Apr 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 348.69 | $0.006 | $2 | Apr 21, 2026 UTC |
 Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Yes | sell | 18.03 | $0.002 | $0.04 | Apr 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?Yes | sell | 23.75 | $0.001 | $0.03 | Apr 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.009 | $1 | Apr 3, 2026 UTC |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 30-April 5?Yes | buy | 61.43 | $0.028 | $1.72 | Mar 31, 2026 UTC |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Yes | sell | 272.72 | $0.001 | $0.27 | Mar 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 70.08 | $0.014 | $1 | Mar 26, 2026 UTC |
 Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes | sell | 23.8 | $0.002 | $0.05 | Mar 25, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Yes | buy | 25.64 | $0.039 | $1 | Mar 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Yes | buy | 272.73 | $0.011 | $3 | Mar 20, 2026 UTC |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.018 | $2 | Mar 15, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 133.33 | $0.015 | $2 | Mar 14, 2026 UTC |
 Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.065 | $1 | Mar 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.065 | $1 | Mar 14, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.010 | $2 | Mar 10, 2026 UTC |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Mar 10, 2026 UTC |
 Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes | sell | 0.58 | $0.060 | $0.03 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes | buy | 23.81 | $0.042 | $1 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 18.05 | $0.166 | $3 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes | sell | 13.7 | $0.061 | $0.84 | Mar 9, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.280 | $4 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
 US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes | sell | 145.11 | $0.010 | $1.45 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March?Yes | buy | 23.75 | $0.042 | $1 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Yes | buy | 18.04 | $0.055 | $1 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?No | buy | 109.43 | $0.027 | $3 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes | sell | 42.31 | $0.380 | $16.08 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?Yes | buy | 42.31 | $0.354 | $15 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 81.22 | $0.025 | $2 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 41.67 | $0.024 | $1 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14?Yes | buy | 11.76 | $0.170 | $2 | Mar 6, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14?Yes | buy | 18.75 | $0.160 | $3 | Mar 3, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.090 | $2 | Mar 3, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3?Yes | sell | 60.23 | $0.009 | $0.54 | Mar 3, 2026 UTC |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 1?No | buy | 125 | $0.008 | $1 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 1?Yes | buy | 56.3 | $0.018 | $1 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3?Yes | buy | 28.99 | $0.069 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3?Yes | buy | 31.25 | $0.064 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
| US forces enter Iran by March 1?Yes | buy | 118.49 | $0.017 | $2 | Mar 1, 2026 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.