Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 66.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 26 Apr 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 66.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Apr 2026. $1.9M traded over the market's life.
472 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 27, 9:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 26 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 66.5% |
| 26 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bink_7 | Yes | 12.5K |
| anas10 | Yes | 10.61K |
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 10.06K |
| rounders2026 | Yes | 10K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-by-167
| Outlandish-Cream | Yes | 6.88K |
| Loose-Vibrissae | Yes | 5K |
| PussInBoosts | Yes | 5K |
| Embellished-Rainy | Yes | 4.8K |
| ligmaaaaa | Yes | 3.47K |
| Handy-Beck | Yes | 3.43K |
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