Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 66 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 1 Apr 2026 (13 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 5.9% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Mar 2026. $4.55M traded over the market's life.
551 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 4.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hedidityes | Yes | 100K |
| 3.3.3 | Yes | 100K |
| Sore-Speculation | Yes | 39K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
| Periodic-Maggot | Yes | 19.39K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 15K |
| 171201 | Yes | 12.15K |
| Azure Sphinx C462 | Yes | 10.95K |
| Alarming-Elevator | Yes | 10.86K |
| Courageous-Eating | Yes | 10.4K |
| Prosperity168 | Yes | 10.34K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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