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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | No | 75.02 | $0.820 | $73.74 | +$12.23 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 10.42 | $0.470 | $4.89 | 6d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 133.19 |
| $0.450 |
| $69.92 |
| +$9.99 |
 Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 133.16 | $0.290 | $63.25 | +$24.63 |
 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 72.72 | $0.231 | $16.73 | -$0.05 |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 71.42 | $0.250 | $16.43 | -$1.43 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 18.73 | $0.840 | $16.1 | +$0.37 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 33.7 | $0.523 | $12.3 | -$5.34 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 20.82 | $0.500 | $9.89 | -$0.52 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 28.1 | $0.340 | $8.01 | -$1.55 |
 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 9.15 | $0.790 | $6.95 | -$0.27 |
 Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 6.48 | $0.950 | $6.1 | -$0.06 |
 Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 5.38 | $0.974 | $5.36 | +$0.12 |
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 6.54 | $0.748 | $5.25 | +$0.35 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 5.82 | $0.690 | $4.13 | +$0.12 |
 Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027? | No | 6.26 | $0.680 | $4.1 | -$0.16 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | No | 5.27 | $0.480 | $3.4 | +$0.87 |
 Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 21.96 | $0.224 | $2.09 | -$2.83 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 12.5 | $0.694 | $1.81 | -$6.87 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.5 | $0.400 | $0.16 | -$0.84 |
 Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 29.69 | $0.470 | $0.04 | -$13.91 |
| Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 63.61 | $0.105 | $0.03 | -$6.66 |
| Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 11.27 | $0.490 | $0.02 | -$5.51 |
| buy |
| 6.65 |
| $0.977 |
| $6.5 |
| 7d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10.42 | $0.570 | $5.94 | 7d ago |
 Will VfL Osnabrück vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No | sell | 0.26 | $0.972 | $0.25 | 8d ago |
| Will VfL Osnabrück vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No | sell | 5.23 | $0.972 | $5.08 | 8d ago |
| Will VfL Osnabrück vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No | buy | 5.49 | $0.974 | $5.35 | 8d ago |
| Will VfL Osnabrück vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No | sell | 5.17 | $0.968 | $5 | 8d ago |
| Will VfL Osnabrück vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?No | buy | 5.17 | $0.972 | $5.03 | 8d ago |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes | buy | 9.15 | $0.790 | $7.23 | 8d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5.27 | $0.480 | $2.53 | 13d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 7.22 | $0.530 | $3.83 | 13d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.550 | $2.77 | 13d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 6.89 | $0.450 | $3.1 | 13d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 6.89 | $0.450 | $3.1 | 13d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 0.26 | $0.520 | $0.14 | 13d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 5.73 | $0.530 | $3.04 | 13d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5.99 | $0.560 | $3.35 | 13d ago |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | sell | 5.09 | $0.656 | $3.34 | 14d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 5.09 | $0.657 | $3.34 | 14d ago |
| Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 5.38 | $0.974 | $5.24 | 14d ago |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | sell | 6.62 | $0.973 | $6.44 | 14d ago |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 6.62 | $0.975 | $6.45 | 14d ago |
 Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?No | buy | 5.36 | $0.770 | $4.13 | 16d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 6.19 | $0.650 | $4.02 | 17d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 6.19 | $0.660 | $4.09 | 17d ago |
 Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?No | sell | 7.4 | $0.560 | $4.14 | 18d ago |
| Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?No | buy | 7.4 | $0.570 | $4.22 | 18d ago |
| Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?No | sell | 1.09 | $0.590 | $0.64 | 18d ago |
| Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?No | sell | 5.86 | $0.570 | $3.34 | 18d ago |
 Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No | buy | 3.55 | $0.690 | $2.45 | 19d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 9.99 | $0.680 | $6.79 | 20d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 9.99 | $0.730 | $7.29 | 28d ago |
 Bitcoin Up or Down on August 9?Up | buy | 5.33 | $0.810 | $4.32 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ETDown | buy | 59.26 | $0.010 | $0.59 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ETUp | buy | 8.41 | $0.120 | $1.01 | Aug 6, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 7?Yes | buy | 6.27 | $0.290 | $1.82 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ETUp | buy | 11 | $0.440 | $4.84 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 6?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.420 | $2.47 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 6?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.500 | $2.5 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?Yes | buy | 7.32 | $0.260 | $1.9 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6?Yes | buy | 5.34 | $0.510 | $2.72 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?Yes | buy | 6.84 | $0.440 | $3.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 6?Yes | buy | 5.04 | $0.480 | $2.42 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ETUp | buy | 9.41 | $0.890 | $8.37 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETDown | buy | 36.31 | $0.039 | $1.4 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ETDown | buy | 5.18 | $0.380 | $1.97 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on August 6?Yes | sell | 6.03 | $0.150 | $0.9 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ETDown | buy | 82.37 | $0.010 | $0.82 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ETDown | buy | 12.53 | $0.070 | $0.88 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETDown | buy | 8.5 | $0.354 | $3.01 | Aug 5, 2026 |