Analytics
Yes is at 34.4%, up 10 points from 24% when the market opened on 23 May 2026.
Across the 153 daily closes on record from 23 May 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.8% on 17 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 5 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 38.8%; a month before, 56.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 28.6% on 8 Jul 2026.
It is one of 21 markets under “Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?”.
$841.45 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $77.19K since listing. The order book holds $52K, with a 1.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.48K bought Yes and $4.85K bought No; the largest was a $1.61K buy of No at 62.1¢.
The largest Yes position is buoys with 5.3K shares; the largest No position is bernardbulletin with 5K. Ten wallets hold 82.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 153 points, 23 May 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 24.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 34.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| buoys | Yes | 5.26K |
| bernardbulletin | No | 4.98K |
| Olcan | Yes | 1.75K |
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet-474
9 more markets, none above 1.9%.
| siick |
| Yes |
| 1.72K |
| bonalddrunk | No | 1.52K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 969.83 |
| random123135 | No | 785.32 |
| Cheesik | No | 695.99 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 639.16 |
| jaja5050 | No | 493.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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