Latest trade
Dec 8, 2025 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 4:28 AM UTC.
Analytics
Understated-Carp is down $49.09 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 29 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-04-01 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Dec 8, 2025 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 24, 4:28 AM UTC.
$1.79 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 31 markets; 54.0% were buys. They run from Nov 24, 2025 UTC to Dec 8, 2025 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
Polymarket returned no open positions for this wallet.
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?No | buy | 46.3 | $0.300 | $13.89 | Dec 8, 2025 UTC |
 |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-04-01 08:18 UTC
Polymarket public position response
0 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-24 04:28 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-24 04:28 UTC
polymarket positions
31 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-04-01 08:18 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $5.3 and losing ones cost $37.5 across 29 settled positions. 31% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $1.8 on “Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?” (Yes); the largest loss, $15 on “Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 8 Dec 2025. It has traded 31 markets. It holds no open positions.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| sell |
| 2.4 |
| $0.930 |
| $2.23 |
| Dec 8, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | sell | 5.35 | $0.760 | $4.07 | Dec 8, 2025 UTC |
 Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes | sell | 1.67 | $0.994 | $1.66 | Dec 8, 2025 UTC |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Yes | buy | 16.3 | $0.920 | $15 | Dec 2, 2025 UTC |
 Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Yes | sell | 29.06 | $0.390 | $11.33 | Dec 2, 2025 UTC |
| Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?Yes | buy | 29.07 | $0.877 | $25.48 | Dec 1, 2025 UTC |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | sell | 5.56 | $0.080 | $0.44 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes | buy | 1.67 | $0.898 | $1.5 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Yes | sell | 71.42 | $0.021 | $1.5 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?Yes | buy | 9.6 | $0.945 | $9.07 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Yes | buy | 71.43 | $0.028 | $2 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump visit China by March 31?No | sell | 2.15 | $0.920 | $1.98 | Nov 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?Yes | sell | 7.14 | $0.070 | $0.5 | Nov 28, 2025 UTC |
 Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?Yes | buy | 8.59 | $0.790 | $6.79 | Nov 27, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 5.36 | $0.560 | $3 | Nov 27, 2025 UTC |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?No | buy | 2.08 | $0.960 | $2 | Nov 27, 2025 UTC |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Nov 27, 2025 UTC |
 James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial?Yes | buy | 1.47 | $0.999 | $1.47 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?Yes | sell | 2.63 | $0.360 | $0.95 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?No | buy | 15.32 | $0.979 | $15 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.41 | $0.830 | $2 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | sell | 5.37 | $0.701 | $3.76 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Bitcoin Up or Down on November 25?Up | sell | 2.17 | $0.700 | $1.52 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump sue the BBC?No | sell | 2.85 | $0.610 | $1.74 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?No | sell | 2.02 | $0.979 | $1.98 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes | sell | 5.61 | $0.850 | $4.77 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.4 | $0.250 | $1.85 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | sell | 15.38 | $0.110 | $1.69 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Yes | sell | 1.16 | $0.700 | $0.81 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
 Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | sell | 1.06 | $0.370 | $0.39 | Nov 25, 2025 UTC |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes | buy | 1.92 | $0.966 | $1.85 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?No | sell | 1 | $0.994 | $0.99 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?Yes | sell | 8.54 | $0.101 | $0.86 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on November 25?Up | buy | 2.18 | $0.780 | $1.7 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.41 | $0.270 | $2 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?Yes | buy | 8.55 | $0.117 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes | sell | 3.99 | $0.620 | $2.47 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Yes | sell | 5.74 | $0.410 | $2.35 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1?Yes | sell | 1.38 | $0.530 | $0.73 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?Yes | buy | 2.63 | $0.380 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Yes | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by November 30?Yes | buy | 7.14 | $0.140 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1?Yes | buy | 1.39 | $0.720 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?No | buy | 1.01 | $0.995 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31?No | buy | 2.15 | $0.930 | $2 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
 Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Yes | buy | 103.45 | $0.029 | $3 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Yes | buy | 1.33 | $0.750 | $1 | Nov 24, 2025 UTC |
1 of 3 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 5 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.