Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 36 | $0.340 | $12.24 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 23 |
| $0.977 |
| $22.47 |
| Jun 24, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 34 | $0.977 | $33.22 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 65 | $0.470 | $30.55 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.320 | $3.2 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes | buy | 71 | $0.200 | $14.2 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | sell | 12 | $0.920 | $11.04 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 21 | $0.920 | $19.32 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | sell | 5 | $0.750 | $3.75 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | sell | 17 | $0.740 | $12.58 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | buy | 47 | $0.740 | $34.78 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 35 | $0.860 | $30.1 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 35 | $0.860 | $30.1 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.540 | $5.4 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 57 | $0.540 | $30.78 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.240 | $2.4 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes | buy | 19 | $0.240 | $4.56 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 36 | $0.917 | $33.01 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 35 | $0.939 | $32.86 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 35 | $0.939 | $32.86 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 19.02 | $0.065 | $1.24 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.066 | $2.64 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 61 | $0.600 | $36.6 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.290 | $2.32 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes | sell | 44 | $0.290 | $12.76 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes | buy | 52 | $0.290 | $15.08 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 45 | $0.500 | $22.5 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 45 | $0.500 | $22.5 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Yes | sell | 48 | $0.011 | $0.53 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Yes | buy | 87 | $0.012 | $1.04 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 73 | $0.500 | $36.5 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No | buy | 41 | $0.988 | $40.51 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | sell | 142 | $0.195 | $27.69 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 142 | $0.187 | $26.55 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 20 | $0.810 | $16.2 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | sell | 57 | $0.690 | $39.33 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | buy | 57 | $0.690 | $39.33 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Will Alberta join the US?Yes | buy | 34 | $0.045 | $1.53 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by June 30?No | buy | 1 | $0.951 | $0.95 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | sell | 57 | $0.690 | $39.33 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | buy | 23 | $0.690 | $15.87 | Jun 2, 2026 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | sell | 22 | $0.190 | $4.18 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | buy | 61 | $0.190 | $11.59 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No | sell | 13 | $0.814 | $10.58 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 13 | $0.810 | $10.53 | Jun 2, 2026 |
 Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 40 | $0.983 | $39.32 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 40 | $0.983 | $39.32 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 115 | $0.014 | $1.61 | May 31, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 132 | $0.015 | $1.98 | May 31, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.290 | $1.74 | May 31, 2026 |