Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 18 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 174 daily closes on record from 18 Mar 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 18 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Sep 2026. $2.43M traded over the market's life.
673 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 4:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 18 Mar 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | 12.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ultimate-Execution | Yes | 43.59K |
| TheLakeside | Yes | 41K |
| KKCY3218 | Yes | 35.76K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026
New to prediction markets?
| Crypto4thewin | Yes | 17.41K |
| Gullible-Defender | Yes | 16.23K |
| Grotesque-Print-Shirt | Yes | 11.11K |
| basedkz | Yes | 7.99K |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | No | 4.47K |
| Pivko | Yes | 4.41K |
| pleasehelpme | Yes | 3K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
