Analytics
Yes is at 1.5%, down 4.5 points from 6% when the market opened on 3 Mar 2026.
Across the 219 daily closes on record from 3 Mar 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 6.3% on 4 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.9%; a month before, 0.9%.
Alireza Arafi ranks fourth of the 30 outcomes in “Iran leader end of 2026?”. Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 85.4%; No Head of State is at 3.7%.
$2.33M traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $62.32K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $286.72 bought Yes and $2.2K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Eatpraylove with 8.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 59.1K. Ten wallets hold 84% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 5:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 219 points, 3 Mar 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2026 | 6.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 59.12K |
| Eatpraylove | Yes | 8.75K |
| okwtfok | Yes | 6.73K |
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026
18 more outcomes, none above 0.1%.
| Ivory Meteor 14DD |
| Yes |
| 5.87K |
| Azure Harbor EC5C | Yes | 5.37K |
| Neon Raven 6277 | Yes | 4.92K |
| fiter | Yes | 4.37K |
| simplystupid188 | Yes | 3.15K |
| rgess | Yes | 2.88K |
| classified | No | 2.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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