Latest trade
Aug 6, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 5:39 PM UTC.
Analytics
Pauliemarkets is down $311.37 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 21 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-09-10 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Aug 6, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 26, 5:39 PM UTC.
$10 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 32 markets; 92.0% were buys. They run from Apr 20, 2026 UTC to Aug 6, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US recession by end of 2026? | Yes | 470.88 | $0.149 | $35.32 | -$34.68 |
 Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | Aug 6, 2026 UTC |
|
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-09-10 15:46 UTC
Polymarket public position response
12 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-26 17:39 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-26 17:39 UTC
polymarket positions
22 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-09-10 15:46 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $402.34 and losing ones cost $357.87 across 21 settled positions. 19% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $283.35 on “Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?” (Yes); the largest loss, $100 on “Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?” (Yes).
Its most recent trade on record was on 6 Aug 2026. It has traded 60 markets. Its open positions are worth $81.7 across 12 markets.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
| Yes |
| 932.46 |
| $0.037 |
| $20.98 |
| -$14.02 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | Yes | 393.09 | $0.102 | $10.42 | -$29.58 |
 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 476.19 | $0.084 | $6.19 | -$33.81 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? | Yes | 200.29 | $0.075 | $3.81 | -$11.19 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 50 | $0.200 | $3.25 | -$6.75 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 66.67 | $0.150 | $1.2 | -$8.8 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? | Yes | 158.41 | $0.126 | $0.24 | -$19.76 |
| Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 224.44 | $0.044 | $0.11 | -$9.89 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 192.31 | $0.052 | $0.1 | -$9.9 |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 142.97 | $0.070 | $0.07 | -$9.93 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 46.69 | $0.107 | $0.02 | -$4.98 |
| buy |
| 129.87 |
| $0.077 |
| $10 |
| Aug 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 106.73 | $0.094 | $10 | Aug 6, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 95.91 | $0.104 | $10 | Aug 6, 2026 UTC |
| US recession by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 153.85 | $0.130 | $20 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 208.92 | $0.024 | $5 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.160 | $10 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Yes | buy | 70.42 | $0.071 | $5 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 46.69 | $0.107 | $5 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 66.67 | $0.150 | $10 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 93.33 | $0.054 | $5 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 56.75 | $0.176 | $10 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.080 | $20 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 333.39 | $0.885 | $295.05 | Jul 29, 2026 UTC |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.120 | $10 | Jun 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 104.38 | $0.096 | $10 | Jun 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 344.65 | $0.029 | $10 | Jun 23, 2026 UTC |
| US recession by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.120 | $10 | Jun 23, 2026 UTC |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes | sell | 1K | $0.032 | $31.62 | Jun 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes | sell | 666.66 | $0.005 | $3.33 | Jun 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes | sell | 1K | $0.005 | $4.6 | Jun 17, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes | buy | 666.67 | $0.015 | $10 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes | buy | 714.29 | $0.014 | $10 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.020 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.020 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| US recession by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 95.24 | $0.210 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 3.33K | $0.006 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.22K | $0.009 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 181.98 | $0.110 | $20 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Yes | buy | 156.67 | $0.064 | $10 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
 Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 544.68 | $0.018 | $10 | Jun 1, 2026 UTC |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24?Up | buy | 9.76 | $0.390 | $3.8 | Apr 24, 2026 UTC |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 24, 2026 UTC |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 24, 2026 UTC |
| Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 184.15 | $0.049 | $9.05 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?Yes | buy | 753.25 | $0.012 | $9.01 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
 Will three people dissent the April Fed decision?Yes | buy | 152.64 | $0.066 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Yes | buy | 1.71K | $0.006 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 342.87 | $0.029 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.030 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.11K | $0.009 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.5K | $0.004 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.050 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 565.31 | $0.018 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.04K | $0.010 | $10 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.033 | $1 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Apr 23, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.032 | $2 | Apr 20, 2026 UTC |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 976.29 | $0.002 | $2 | Apr 20, 2026 UTC |
Placed on fixed scales: no Radar board ranking was cached on this server when the profile was read, so no archetype is claimed. Not drawn for this wallet: 2 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.