Analytics
Yes is at 1.4%, down 22 points from 23% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2025.
Across the 371 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2025 to 24 Oct 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32.5% on 19 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.9%; a month before, 0.9%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 10.5% on 6 Jun 2026.
1 (25 bps) ranks second of the 13 outcomes in “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”. 0 (0 bps) leads at 96.2%; 2 (50 bps) is at 0.4%.
$1.28K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.61M since listing. The order book holds $152.59K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.65K bought Yes and $892.18 bought No; the largest was a $1.68K sell of No at 98.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Odysseus. with 92.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.01M. Ten wallets hold 65.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 12:16 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 371 points, 30 Sep 2025 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 23.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 1.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.01M |
| Odysseus. | Yes | 92.39K |
| fur-fox | Yes | 80.36K |
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
1 more outcome, none above 0.1%.
| hippoka |
| Yes |
| 46.88K |
| -ojoker- | Yes | 46.32K |
| shrewsenhower | Yes | 38.03K |
| zhenheng | Yes | 33.98K |
| 0xA77 | Yes | 29.63K |
| Hyperlong | Yes | 28.8K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 26.91K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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