Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$145.0K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2026 UTC

Topic roomECB interest rates

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 7 Feb 2026 to 30 Apr 2026 (35 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 13% on 8 Feb 2026. $144.97K traded over the market's life.

95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 1, 12:16 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 7 Feb 2026 – 30 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
7 Feb 2026	23.5%
30 Apr 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	113.8K
Rangonius	Yes	10K
mrgr666	Yes	5K

10 of 95 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.