Analytics
Yes is at 18.4%, down 9.2 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 175 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 25 May 2026 and the lowest 9.9% on 26 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22.6%; a month before, 21.6%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 39.6% on 1 Aug 2026.
80-82% ranks third of the 6 outcomes in “New Zealand Election: Turnout”. 76-78% leads at 41%; 78-80% is at 33%.
$5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.41K since listing. The order book holds $1.66K, with a 7.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 206 trades, $239.6 bought Yes and $658.29 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Flamboyant-Warming with 531 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 797. Ten wallets hold 95.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 175 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 27.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 18.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 796.64 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 531.06 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 95 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 New Zealand general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of enrolled voters (votes cast to electors on master roll, combined total of General and Māori electorate). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-election-turnout
| Immaterial-Secretariat | Yes | 50 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 50 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 45 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 40 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 29.9 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 21.42 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 19.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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