Analytics
Yes is at 1.3%, down 8.8 points from 10% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 333 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.3%; a month before, 1.8%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 9% on 22 Jan 2026.
$20.16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.35M since listing. The order book holds $66.61K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $412.28 bought Yes and $20.99K bought No; the largest was a $5.4K buy of No at 97.5¢.
The largest Yes position is Safe-Jewelry with 22.4K shares; the largest No position is Jan777 with 74.9K. Ten wallets hold 56.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 333 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 10.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jan777 | No | 74.86K |
| mr-green-tea | No | 52.61K |
| Safe-Jewelry | Yes | 22.43K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027
| DonaldPumpJr |
| Yes |
| 16.39K |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | No | 11.19K |
| kevinlim883 | No | 11.18K |
| Far-Off-Shakedown | Yes | 10.07K |
| jozeslemsek | Yes | 9.4K |
| maritime6307 | Yes | 8.65K |
| DegenOnChainTest | Yes | 8.28K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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