Analytics
Yes is at 9%, down 50 points from 59% when the market opened on 3 Jan 2026.
Across the 288 daily closes on record from 3 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 65% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 3.3% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.1%; a month before, 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 35.5% on 4 Apr 2026.
It is one of 5 markets under “How high will US unemployment go in 2026?”.
$2.05K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $168.33K since listing. The order book holds $3.22K, with a 1.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $717.81 bought Yes and $11.75K bought No; the largest was a $6.32K sell of No at 91.9¢.
The largest Yes position is singaporesling with 13K shares; the largest No position is pako with 8.9K. Ten wallets hold 70.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 96 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 288 points, 3 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | 59.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 9.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| singaporesling | Yes | 13.03K |
| pako | No | 8.85K |
| Magamyman | No | 3.67K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026
| vinii |
| No |
| 1.75K |
| gummy-usb | Yes | 1.74K |
| jadebasilisk | No | 1.5K |
| Tpezaske | Yes | 1.46K |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 1.43K |
| MrDraco | Yes | 1.23K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 1.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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