Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 15 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 109 daily closes on record from 15 Apr 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 74% on 1 May 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 59% on 16 Apr 2025. $499.71K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 3:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 109 points, 15 Apr 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Apr 2025 | 43.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jamram123 | Yes | 12.34K |
| YoungGriff | Yes | 3.97K |
| cryptoLord | Yes | 2.74K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 14 and July 31 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for July 31 is not published by August 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-before-august
| Yes |
| 1.14K |
| Matty | Yes | 1.14K |
| DickTurbin | Yes | 439 |
| Lined-Planter | Yes | 329.01 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 283 |
| HenriD | Yes | 263.68 |
| ihortuz | Yes | 199.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
