Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 8.9% on 25 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.8 points up, to 8.9% on 25 Nov 2025. $126.26K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 344 |
| kamarat | Yes | 299.98 |
| gigimicXsdkjeSdskjja | Yes | 264.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump for any charges by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-pardon-maduro-by-december-31
| Yes |
| 246.92 |
| cynical-reason | Yes | 235.13 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 234.92 |
| 25oodksmsss09 | Yes | 143.6 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 136.85 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 103.96 |
| S888 | Yes | 103.68 |
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