Analytics
Yes is at 3.4%, down 36 points from 39% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 137 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 12 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 3.1%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 49.5% on 7 Jul 2026.
$3.08K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $11.89K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 47 trades, $27.48 bought Yes and $1.38K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 359 shares; the largest No position is geowatch with 1.1K.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 137 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 39.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| geowatch | No | 1.08K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 358.95 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 250 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that at least some territory on the Chagos Islands will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of any of the Chagos Archipelago from either the United Kingdom or Mauritius to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. Basing rights, military leases, or access agreements alone do not constitute sovereignty transfer. An official announcement made by the United States and either the United Kingdom or Mauritius that territory within the Chagos Archipelago will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur or if such announcement is pending ratification, parliamentary approval, or other conditional legislative steps. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, United Kingdom, or Mauritius, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that land on the Chagos Archipelago has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-announce-an-acquisition-of-part-of-the-chagos-islands-before-2027-20260609184517049
| PaddyAlpha |
| Yes |
| 193.77 |
| nufonehudis67 | Yes | 100 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 81.54 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 49.5 |
| Smithio | Yes | 31.25 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 25 |
| big-bird1 | No | 23.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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