Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 16 points from 16% when the market opened on 7 Jul 2026.
Across the 113 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16% on 7 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.3%; a month before, 0.4%. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 2.5% on 9 Jul 2026.
4+ ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?”. 2 leads at 89.5%; 3 is at 10.5%.
$17.61K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.68K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 111 trades, $119.85 bought Yes and $6.28K bought No.
The largest Yes position is ydxistheking with 4.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 17K. Ten wallets hold 94.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 113 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 16.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 16.97K |
| ydxistheking | Yes | 4.46K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 3.64K |
This market will resolve to the number of unique individuals who officially hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the number of unique individuals to hold the position. For example, if an individual is appointed twice within the specified timeframe, they will only count once for resolution. To count for resolution, an individual must have been officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. An individual’s time of appointment will have no bearing on this market so long as the individual officially serves as Prime Minister within the specified timeframe. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market For clarity, Keir Starmer will count as one Prime Minister for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-uk-prime-ministers-by-end-of-2027-20260706201826008
| WarriorH |
| Yes |
| 2.23K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.12K |
| AiBird | Yes | 1.03K |
| vinii | Yes | 865.55 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 655 |
| ACara | Yes | 575.34 |
| TheKinginYellow | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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