Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 5 Aug 2026, the highest close was 45.5% on 29 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 24.5% on 30 Jul 2026. $9.23K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 5 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 31.5% |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 881112 | Yes | 2.72K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 603.71 |
| 0xdamocles | Yes | 132.66 |
| NoisyShark | Yes | 127.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-july-20260713195907051
| S888 | Yes | 121.02 |
| Nostdam | Yes | 100 |
| yueyueyn | Yes | 96.82 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| ms1910 | Yes | 24.18 |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 20 |
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