Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 18 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 5 Jan 2026.
Across the 268 daily closes on record from 5 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (32 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 3 May 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 29.5% on 3 May 2026.
$296.11K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $22.83K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.16K bought Yes and $16.79K bought No; the largest was a $2.98K sell of No at 79.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Threadbare-Signal with 9.6K shares; the largest No position is Donny.T with 9.4K. Ten wallets hold 66.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 268 points, 5 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Jan 2026 | 23.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 9.61K |
| Donny.T | No | 9.4K |
| mageth | Yes | 6.69K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-a-latin-american-country-in-2026
| LinaBell |
| Yes |
| 3K |
| Listerineman | Yes | 2.67K |
| Real-Advertisement | No | 2.38K |
| DonAntimatter | No | 1.98K |
| DFC | No | 1.98K |
| GTOrski1 | No | 1.68K |
| DFK | No | 1.66K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
