Analytics
Yes is at 95%, up 57 points from 38% when the market opened on 25 Apr 2026.
Across the 183 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 27 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 73.5%; a month before, 70.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 45% on 29 Apr 2026.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “US economic state at the end of 2026?”, ahead of Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 3.3%.
$561.16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $48.07K since listing. The order book holds $10.85K, with a 0.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.45K bought Yes and $1.8K bought No; the largest was a $3K buy of Yes at 95.8¢.
The largest Yes position is perfectnostalgia with 4.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.7K. Ten wallets hold 88.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 183 points, 25 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 38.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 95.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.66K |
| perfectnostalgia | Yes | 4.08K |
| Underdarkus | Yes | 3.36K |
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 2.89K |
| macrosteaks | No | 970 |
| Haradwaith | No | 686.77 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 601.22 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 475.71 |
| whispercatalyst | No | 289.05 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 282.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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