
Resolved Yes on 30 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 28% on 19 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2026 to 30 Jul 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 20% on 24 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 39.5% on 26 Jul 2026. $4.01M traded over the market's life.
334 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 31, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 19 Jul 2026 – 30 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2026 | 28.0% |
| 30 Jul 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Amber Vector 9586 | No | 212.76K |
| Glittering-Switching | No | 130K |
| tylor46711 | No | 70K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
| No |
| 60K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | 57.78K |
| streethawk | No | 44K |
| lighter300 | No | 20K |
| Quizzical-Illustration | No | 15K |
| BigMackyG | No | 14.67K |
| Shoddy-Habitat | No | 14K |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096
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