
Resolved Yes on 13 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 48%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 7 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 13 Jul 2026, the highest close was 48% on 13 Jul 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 7 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 41.5% on 12 Jul 2026. $293.35K traded over the market's life.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 14, 4:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 13 Jul 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 28.5% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 48.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Evergreen-Idea | No | 14.52K |
| Weird-Milestone | No | 9.42K |
| birubi | No | 8.7K |
| JoeBlack01 | No | 4.72K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
| SquirrelTheMerchant | No | 2.98K |
| Skinny-Class | No | 2.8K |
| HerrieDavis | No | 2.6K |
| 0xC81b7D9F4464C9985f5621492829ahdfc | No | 2.3K |
| LukeDelta | No | 1.7K |
| controls | No | 1.39K |
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