Analytics
Yes is at 23%, down 27 points from 50% when the market opened on 4 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 4 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 58% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15%; a month before, 15%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 26% on 8 Sep 2026.
It is one of 11 markets under “Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?”.
$5.36K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $462.9, with a 20.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 134 trades, $334.32 bought Yes and $1.27K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Haradwaith with 313 shares; the largest No position is spacegliderr with 517. Ten wallets hold 91.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 15 Jan 2027, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 4 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| spacegliderr | No | 517.01 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 313.32 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 190.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-mortgage-rate-hit-in-2026
| StarMaster |
| No |
| 164.62 |
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 108.18 |
| just-bettor | No | 94 |
| SuperTests | Yes | 70 |
| lissartter | No | 58.36 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 21 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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