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“Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “U.K. Annual Inflation 2026”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 21, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 24, 1:36 PM UTC, Yes trades at 10.1¢, a 10.1% implied chance, $22.78K traded in the last 24 hours, $1.56K resting in the order book, a 0.5% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 221 daily price points from Jan 23, 2026 UTC to Sep 24, 2026 UTC (Yes between 2.0% and 50.0%); 44 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 83.7% of the loaded shares; 242 recent public fills from 120 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 221 points · 23 Jan 2026 – 24 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 10.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.64K |
| LocalHunter | Yes | 483.12 |
| Mithrandir. | Yes |
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uk-annual-inflation-in-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 438.44 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 238.74 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 178.89 |
| vivi4024 | Yes | 172 |
| ACara | Yes | 155.06 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 147.63 |
| Silver Ledger 220B | No | 96.26 |
| footballcannon | No | 55 |