Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 48 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 7 Sep 2026.
Across the 49 daily closes on record from 7 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 29 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 60.5%; a month before, 30.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 29.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
October 1 - 31, 2026 ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?”. No return before November 1, 2026 leads at 98.4%.
$1.22K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $82.57K since listing. The order book holds $5.43K, with a 2.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.39K bought Yes and $2.11K bought No; the largest was a $1.51K buy of Yes at 60.0¢.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 7.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 18.2K. Ten wallets hold 87% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 7 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2026 | 49.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.2K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 7.54K |
| iHaveBeenPwned | Yes | 5.24K |
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-rhine-river-return-to-normal-levels-20260906
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 3.36K |
| 0xdc3E831cad | No | 1.31K |
| donthackme | No | 732.97 |
| nellojello | Yes | 712.54 |
| StarMaster | Yes | 691.98 |
| neverhackme | Yes | 659.88 |
| haouibao | Yes | 575 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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