Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$72.7K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 3, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 3 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 3 Feb 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 5.5% on 25 Dec 2025. $72.69K traded over the market's life.

46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 4, 8:23 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 3 Feb 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
24 Dec 2025	48.5%
3 Feb 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	28.07K
Impure-Contour	Yes	2.07K
Portly-Idea	Yes	2K

10 of 46 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s February meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its February 3, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their February 3, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.