Analytics
Yes is at 82.5%, up 35 points from 47.5% when the market opened on 17 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 87.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 47.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 82%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 82% on 21 Oct 2026.
Roger Marshall (R) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Kansas Senate Election: Leavenworth County Winner”, ahead of Adam Hamilton (D) at 15%.
$53.6 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.24K since listing. The order book holds $12.52K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 83 trades, $1.28K bought Yes and $143.56 bought No.
The largest Yes position is GirlOnFire with 399 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 480. Ten wallets hold 90.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 82.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 480.39 |
| GirlOnFire | Yes | 399.3 |
| bonalddrunk | Yes | 383.71 |
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Leavenworth County in the election for United States Senator from Kansas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Kansas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Leavenworth County.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kansas-senate-election-leavenworth-county-winner
| jikolep |
| Yes |
| 297.1 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 208.88 |
| Haradwaith | No | 170.13 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 100 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 84.77 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 77.3 |
| maomao228 | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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