Analytics
Yes is at 3.6%, down 43 points from 47% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 249 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 29 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.6%; a month before, 3.9%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 18% on 1 Feb 2026.
David Pan (R) ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “CA-46 House Election Winner”. Lou Correa (D) leads at 96.2%.
$31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $46.46K since listing. The order book holds $54.46K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 112 trades, $156.35 bought Yes and $23.36K bought No; the largest was a $10.18K buy of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 8.4K shares; the largest No position is purplegatto with 10.6K. Ten wallets hold 97% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 249 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 47.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| purplegatto | No | 10.61K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 8.4K |
| xtxpleasecallme |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-46 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-46-house-election-winner
| Yes |
| 954.59 |
| Anjun | Yes | 555 |
| RolandZhang | Yes | 484 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 450 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 295 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 287.79 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 160 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 153.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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