Analytics
Yes is at 59.5%, down 13 points from 72% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 30 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 73% on 25 Sep 2026 and the lowest 50.5% on 29 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 55.5%; a month before, 65%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 50.5% on 29 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Next Grok Model (4.8+): Text Arena Debut?”.
$3.84K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $106.04, with a 33.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 119 trades, $969.06 bought Yes and $339.77 bought No.
The largest Yes position is 2B9S with 80 shares; the largest No position is dedidanc with 111. Ten wallets hold 92% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 72.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 59.5% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| KiruaTrading |
| Yes |
| 79.99 |
| NoTeacher | No | 76.73 |
| BAO95889 | Yes | 50.01 |
| Sithmaul | Yes | 47.92 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 36.68 |
| Pitosyflautas | Yes | 32.06 |
| acc42020 | Yes | 24.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-text-arena-debut
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