Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 43 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
The high was 48.5% on 23 Sep 2026 and the low 2.6% on 7 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 15%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 11% on 25 Sep 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?”.
$153.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $20.73K since listing. The order book holds $1.36K, with a 4.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 176 trades, $3.16K bought Yes and $1.9K bought No.
The largest Yes position is 0xTism with 6.5K shares; the largest No position is George.Smiley with 9.7K. Ten wallets hold 91.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 10 Oct 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 8, 1:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 17 points · 23 Sep 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 48.5% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| George.Smiley | No | 9.75K |
| 0xTism | Yes | 6.53K |
| vv4309 | Yes | 3.67K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt
| Horrible-University |
| No |
| 1.91K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.68K |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | 1.13K |
| gateway- | Yes | 591.92 |
| WunnaWun | Yes | 559.55 |
| Cheerful-Nucleotidase | No | 516.2 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 378.49 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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