Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 18 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 40.5% on 18 Aug 2026 and the low 0.3% on 5 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 16% on 19 Aug 2026. $30.04K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 10:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 49 points · 18 Aug 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 40.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.94K |
| 99problems123 | Yes | 8.85K |
| balthazar | Yes | 4.49K |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-next-google-gemini-pro-model-be-released-20260817144359068
| vv4309 | Yes | 2.5K |
| bigfunky | Yes | 2.28K |
| 0xTism | Yes | 1.85K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 519.72 |
| Shampooo | Yes | 365.15 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 340 |
| StylishSentinel | Yes | 333.79 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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