
Yes is at 46.5%, up 22 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2026.
Across the 29 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 16% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 26.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 46.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?”.
$1.17K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.24K since listing. The order book holds $755.15, with a 19.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 141 trades, $435.74 bought Yes and $1.04K bought No.
The largest Yes position is MrBauer with 217 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 245. Ten wallets hold 83.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:15 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 24.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 46.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 244.52 |
| MrBauer | Yes | 216.83 |
| imqp11 | Yes | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| BAO95889 |
| No |
| 100 |
| lamyk | No | 100 |
| jkerkela | Yes | 86.71 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 62.56 |
| NoTeacher | No | 46.43 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 40 |
| galhammerman | No | 30 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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