Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 14% on 17 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2026 to 22 Sep 2026, the highest close was 33% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 22 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 0.4% on 22 Sep 2026. $169.57K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 23, 6:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 17 Sep 2026 – 22 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026 | 14.0% |
| 22 Sep 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BrownBees | Yes | 33.97K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 18.98K |
| Alowonle | Yes | 11K |
| balthazar | Yes | 2.12K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public. Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-claude-opus-released-onptptpt-20260915
| Linslav | Yes | 1.83K |
| Coral Scout D6D5 | Yes | 1.28K |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 1.27K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 1.13K |
| god83743894 | Yes | 1.02K |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 770.98 |
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