Analytics
Yes is at 98.9%, up 50 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 246 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.9% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 48.5% on 29 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 97.4%; a month before, 95%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 72.5% on 1 Feb 2026.
Josh Harder (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-09 House Election Winner”, ahead of John McBride (R) at 0.5%.
$20.04K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $17.17K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 147 trades, $7.14K bought Yes and $245.6 bought No; the largest was a $1.55K buy of Yes at 94.6¢.
The largest Yes position is anciano with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1K. Ten wallets hold 86.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 246 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 48.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 98.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anciano | Yes | 1.56K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.01K |
| Seutervoinen | Yes | 299 |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-09-house-election-winner
| Digital-Boy |
| No |
| 261 |
| kittycat67 | Yes | 248 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 163 |
| ABC12345654321 | No | 115.71 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 101.01 |
| thoodr | Yes | 80 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 78 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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