Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85.5%. Yes opened at 60.5% on 24 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 90.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the low 60.5% on 24 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 89.5% on 29 Sep 2026. $39.04K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 12 points · 24 Sep 2026 – 5 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 60.5% |
| 5 Oct 2026 | 85.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yawning-Pith | No | 2.14K |
| Batistouta69 | No | 1.36K |
| Hejdejakob | No | 1.25K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| rocky42023 | No | 1.2K |
| dave12345 | No | 789.16 |
| commeowder | No | 780.53 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 320.11 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 263.72 |
| Kutoba | No | 230 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 219.98 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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