Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

economyActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes

12.3%

87.7%

Yes costs 12.3¢No costs 87.7¢

24h Volume

$395

Total volume

$227.1K

Liquidity

$12.6K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Where it stands

Yes is at 12.3%, down 37 points from 49% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.

Across the 320 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.3% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2% on 24 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 25.1%; a month before, 25.3%. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 43.5% on 18 Nov 2025.

It is one of 5 markets under “How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?”.

$395.5 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $227.13K since listing. The order book holds $12.59K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $7.18K bought Yes and $9K bought No; the largest was a $3.62K sell of No at 76.3¢.

The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 9.1K shares; the largest No position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 23.7K. Ten wallets hold 72.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.

Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:00 PM UTC

Trade

Trade Yes12.3¢

Pays $1 a share if Yes wins$395.5 24h vol

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 320 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026

Same event

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Largest holders

The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No	23.74K
SnapElectionAvoider	Yes	9.14K
k7X9mP2qW4	Yes	3K

Rules

What settles this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).