Analytics
Yes is at 3.1%, down 45 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 13 Nov 2025.
Across the 327 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 30 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 10.5% on 14 Nov 2025.
It is one of 5 markets under “How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?”.
$427.4 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $119.16K since listing. The order book holds $11.96K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.12K bought Yes and $21.83K bought No; the largest was a $8.63K buy of No at 95.9¢.
The largest Yes position is bigdickprick with 9.5K shares; the largest No position is TheReturnOfDarthMaul with 9K. Ten wallets hold 70.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 327 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 48.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bigdickprick | Yes | 9.46K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | No | 9K |
| Quiet Horizon F251 | No | 5.41K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-10-year-treasury-yield-go-before-2027
| XAE12Archangel | No | 2.77K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 1.52K |
| pingentfan1 | Yes | 1.5K |
| lissartter | Yes | 1.32K |
| Andycjs90 | Yes | 1.3K |
| OverlookHotel | Yes | 1.2K |
| Skaliz | No | 999.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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