Analytics
Yes is at 29.2%, up 18 points from 11% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 31.9% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.6% on 11 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 31.9% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?”.
$746.67 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.23K since listing. The order book holds $132.87, with a 8.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 70 trades, $133.22 bought Yes and $593.03 bought No.
The largest Yes position is t4zuwbigfjnrs with 349 shares; the largest No position is Tanjirooo with 290. Ten wallets hold 84.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 5:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 21 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 11.0% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 4.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | Yes | 349.02 |
| Tanjirooo | No | 290.19 |
| AJSV | No | 111.52 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
| kastetem |
| Yes |
| 105.77 |
| Liquidifier | Yes | 100 |
| Ideal-Arch | No | 100 |
| micaudn | Yes | 90 |
| funnyday | No | 60 |
| mavsgseguritas | Yes | 50 |
| cigarettes | No | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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