Analytics
Yes is at 30.1%, up 19 points from 11% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 34.1% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 15 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22.6%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 26.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
Below 4.90% ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?”. Below 4.95% leads at 52%; Below 4.85% is at 23.4%.
$467.13 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.8K since listing. The order book holds $572.61, with a 9.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 111 trades, $498.43 bought Yes and $1.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is t4zuwbigfjnrs with 800 shares; the largest No position is Violet Vector B233 with 616. Ten wallets hold 91.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 6:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 11.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 31.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| t4zuwbigfjnrs | Yes | 800 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 616.24 |
| nj23adsknml3 | No | 112.36 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-in-october
| Gaditima | No | 103.65 |
| AJSV | No | 91.62 |
| Ideal-Arch | No | 50 |
| Constancefung | No | 50 |
| mavsgseguritas | Yes | 40.21 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 40 |
| tacor | Yes | 33.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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