Analytics
Yes is at 1.4%, down 49 points from 50% when the market opened on 24 Mar 2026.
Across the 214 daily closes on record from 24 Mar 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 24 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.4%; a month before, 1.7%. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 6.5% on 25 Mar 2026.
Steve Daines ranks eighth of the 11 outcomes in “Next Senate Majority Leader?”. Chuck Schumer leads at 59%; John Thune is at 24.5%.
$25.11K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $32.69K, with a 1.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 201 trades, $83.04 bought Yes and $9.49K bought No; the largest was a $8.7K buy of No at 97.0¢.
The largest Yes position is wing1234 with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 93.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 4:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 214 points, 24 Mar 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.38K |
| wing1234 | Yes | 1.68K |
| valmier | Yes | 443.87 |
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-senate-majority-leader-485
| cwc909 |
| Yes |
| 399.14 |
| rocky42024 | Yes | 224.13 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 218.37 |
| pestanimal | Yes | 150 |
| VorpalQuark | No | 105 |
| Offbeat-Injoke | Yes | 100 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 97.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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