What is the “Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 1.3¢ and No at 98.7¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 1.3% for Yes and 98.7% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.06K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($464.17) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 13 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 99.1% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 29, 11:04 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? Odds

Market referencewill-september-2026-be-the-4th-or-lower-on-recordUpdated 1m ago

weatherActive

Closes Oct 1, 2026 UTCscienceweather

Yes

1.3%

98.7%

Buy Yes 1.3¢Buy No 98.7¢

24h Volume

$1.1K

Liquidity

$464

Closes

Oct 1, 2026 UTC

Yes price

1.3¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

1.3%

98.7%

24h volume

$1.06K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 1.3¢

Open in terminal$1.06K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

5m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

2.4%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

1.3%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

99%

Yes / No shares

889.05 / 889.04

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

Wallets

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	802.97	0.0%	$0
youtube-trader	Yes	300	0.2%	$300

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will September 2026 be the 4th or lower on record? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 1.3¢ and No at 98.7¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 1.3% for Yes and 98.7% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.06K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($464.17) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Indigo Signal 2966

802.97

0.0%

youtube-trader

Yes

300

0.2%

$300

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$792.53
Corny-Hyphenation	$84.95
youtube-trader	$3.9
dpnd	$2.6
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.	$1.95
AJSV	$1.18
Attached-Prairie	$0.75
VonVonagh	$0.65
luciebot	$0.19
TENETENET	$0.13
bjprolo	$0.1
triklozoid	$0.07