Will September 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

weatherResolved

No, settled Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 49% on 29 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 29 Aug 2026 to 9 Oct 2026, the highest close was 49% on 29 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 13.5% on 6 Sep 2026. $1.16K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 4:58 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 29 Aug 2026 – 9 Oct 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	807.98
Corny-Hyphenation	Yes	175.52
RandomWalker3	Yes	157.09
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.	Yes	133

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.