Analytics
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“Will September 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?” is a weather prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 21, 4:35 PM UTC, Yes trades at 97.0¢, a 97.0% implied chance, $1.07K traded in the last 24 hours, $796.44 resting in the order book, a 3.5% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 20, 2026 UTC to Sep 21, 2026 UTC (Yes between 96.9% and 97.3%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.9% of the loaded shares; 7 recent public fills from 3 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Danny283847490191 | Yes | 1.04K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 696.23 |
| youtube-trader | No | 155 |
| romanew-1-new | No | 104.17 |
| AJSV | No | 53.13 |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 31.21 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | No | 21.43 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | No | 5 |
| Delirious-Graph | No | 5 |