Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 49% on 29 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 58% on 30 Aug 2026 and the low 1.5% on 19 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 36.5% on 31 Aug 2026. $2.48K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 2:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 42 points · 29 Aug 2026 – 9 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | 49.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 807.98 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 673.92 |
| IP1380 | Yes | 200 |
| RandomWalker3 | Yes | 152.25 |
| AGAMBLING | Yes | 100 |
| nikalskull | Yes | 40 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| PPMT | Yes | 9.02 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/september-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
