Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 92 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 22.5% on 7 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 22.5% on 7 Jul 2026. $1.51M traded over the market's life.
155 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 8:47 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 92 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 18.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Themsnw | Yes | 294.02K |
| wayneglensky | Yes | 25.56K |
| Hatatavnwmf | Yes | 23.73K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by
| Overlooked-Conformation | Yes | 22.92K |
| Arbguy | Yes | 12.92K |
| Hakei. | Yes | 10K |
| tdb8f | Yes | 9.09K |
| CR0AKER | Yes | 4.17K |
| 1nvoker1 | Yes | 3.59K |
| a5533 | Yes | 3.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
