Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 9 Jul 2026.
Across the 108 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 9 Jul 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 6.6%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 36% on 21 Jul 2026.
December 31, 2026 ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Will RISEx launch a token by ___?”. December 31, 2027 leads at 74.5%; June 30, 2027 is at 33.5%.
$2.92K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.74K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 44 trades, $12.29 bought Yes and $1.21K bought No.
The largest Yes position is thecaricature with 357 shares; the largest No position is marsresting with 596. Ten wallets hold 87.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 108 points, 9 Jul 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| marsresting | No | 596.46 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 357.49 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 220.45 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if RISEx officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by RISEx will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from RISEx (https://x.com/risextrade), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-risex-launch-a-token-by-20260708174012702
| PicklePredictor |
| No |
| 189.26 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 93.26 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 84 |
| acal | Yes | 69.73 |
| nastynian | No | 60 |
| Malganis | Yes | 48.46 |
| Oklmntrader | Yes | 41.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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