Analytics
Yes is at 5.3%, down 42 points from 47% when the market opened on 14 Jan 2026.
Across the 266 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1% on 3 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.3%; a month before, 1.3%. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 18.5% on 15 Jan 2026.
$155.04 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.67K since listing. The order book holds $18.1K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 414 trades, $774.89 bought Yes and $6.97K bought No.
The largest Yes position is PK123 with 500 shares; the largest No position is Slowroasted with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 77.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 266 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 47.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Slowroasted | No | 2.07K |
| Single-Challenge | No | 884.73 |
| PK123 | Yes | 500.28 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-house-majority-before-the-midterms
| yhvf000 |
| Yes |
| 434.78 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 372.89 |
| crossx | No | 341 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 322 |
| SilentHunter | Yes | 299.47 |
| bananabreakfast | Yes | 250 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 204.46 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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